California urgent care doctors gave a very fact-oriented press conference, providing a lot of data, showing unmistakeably that Covid-19 is nowhere near as deadly as initial models predicted. In fact, according to the data available at this point, it appears to be roughly in line with the lethality of the seasonal flu or influenza.
Doctors Erickson and Massihi also point out that large parts of the population (e.g. 39% of New York state) already test positive for antibodies, i.e. they have come in contact with the virus and now have immunity, while most of them had little or no symptoms. This means we are half-way to herd-immunity, which will end the so-called “pandemic”by itself (long before a vaccine is ready).
They compare the data of Sweden, which issued neither shelter-in-place orders, economic shutdowns, nor other mandatory restrictions and point out that the difference between Sweden’s numbers and those of countries with draconian restrictions is statistically insignificant.
Empty hospitals across America, medical personnel being laid off and similar consequences of the shutdowns are among other issues they bring attention to. Dr. Erickson also admits that doctors are being pressured into adding COVID to death-certificates, even when the actual cause of death was something else. This suggests that even the official death numbers (which are a fraction of what was predicted), are still exaggerated in light of co-morbidities.
They go on to explain how the human body’s immune system works. A field they have extensive training and experience in. The bottom line is: the body needs exposure to pathogens (bacteria and viruses) to build and maintain it’s immune system. “As I shelter in place, my immune system drops”, Dr. Erickson explains, “you keep me there for months, it drops more.”
He also explains why wearing gloves and masks is not helpful in most settings and points out that “we are not wearing masks.” Dr. Assihi explains that wearing a mask can be counterproductive and that for most people it is better not to wear one. Given that the virus can survive on plastic surfaces for days, most people are being exposed to it, despite not going to work, according to Dr. Erickson. “It’s OK for us to go to Costco, but not to church. Do you see the lack of consistency here?” he asks. “Big businesses are open; little businesses are not. There is no science behind that.” “If I swabbed things in your home, I would likely find COVID-19” Erickson says.
Dr. Massihi emphasizes that quarantining the healthy does not make any sense from an immunological standpoint. To fight an epidemic,”you quarantine the sick, not the healthy.” “Going outside is healthy” Massihi adds. Dr. Erickson points out that the way you get rid of a virus, is to build herd immunity, which is what has always been done and that a look at the massive amounts of data we now have shows that there is no significant medical difference between jurisdictions that shut down, and those that did not. Asked whether he thinks it is safe for a state to lift the lockdown right now, Dr. Erickson answers: “Yes! Yes! Yes! I’m outside with no mask.” Dr. Massihi adds that by sheltering inside for two months, our bodies lose their normal ability to quickly respond to common bacteria and viruses, which is why sheltering in place and avoiding social interactions is actually very dangerous.
Asked whether people worry too much, Dr. Erickson says “Of course they are. But that’s from media telling them to. I’m telling you: sheltering in place decreases your immune system.” Assihi says “we think that the risks of social isolation are too high.”
In conclusion, the doctors make a very well-founded case that restrictions ought to be lifted immediately. While some of these restrictions may have seemed useful based on the initial models several weeks ago, it has become obvious in the meantime that these measures are counterproductive from a medical standpoint. Erickson and Massihi also clarify that the initial models (which predicted millions of deaths in the U.S. instead of about 60,000), did in fact take distancing and staying at home into account, but were nevertheless “not even in the ballpark of accurate.”
Earlier this week, YouTube removed this video from its platform, stating it violated community guidelines. The video can still be viewed on the website of the local TV station, which first broadcasted it (see link).
Given the informative data-presentation and debunking of the irrational fear that was initially spread about this virus, the press conference is worth watching.
https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/accelerated-urgent-care-doctors-recommend-lifting-shelter-in-place-order